Iranian Stock Market Prices in Peace Breakthrough, Street Still Expects Plot Twist

Tehran bourse hits 18-month high on hopes of US deal, but cab drivers remain skeptical: 'They always do this right before the bombs drop'

Iran’s stock market is roaring with optimism as talks with the United States continue, with the benchmark index surging 12% on hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough. The Tehran bourse is now pricing in a 90% chance of a deal within 60 days, according to a survey of algorithmic trading bots that have never been wrong about anything before.

But on the streets of Tehran, the mood is more divided than a Persian cat at a dog park. While the markets see dollar signs, many Iranians are bracing for what they call the 'inevitable last-minute twist.'

'Every time the market gets this happy, I start stockpiling canned tuna,' said Mehdi, a taxi driver who asked to be identified only by his first name because his cousin is a sanctions broker. 'In 2015, the market went up 40% during the nuclear talks, and then we got a deal. But in 2019, it went up 30% right before the drone strikes. Now I don't know whether to buy a new carpet or dig a bunker.'

At a kebab stand near the Grand Bazaar, the owner has installed a LED ticker that alternates between the index price and the number of days since the last 'act of aggression.' 'It's good for business,' he said, flipping a skewer. 'When the ticker says green, people order extra saffron rice. When it says red, they order extra anxiety.'

The divide extends to the highest levels of leadership. President Hassan Rouhani’s office released a statement saying that 'cautious optimism is the only rational position,' while the Revolutionary Guard issued a competing statement calling it 'reckless optimism that underestimates the enemy's capacity for maximum pressure and dramatic betrayal.' The two statements were printed back-to-back in the state-run newspaper, separated by a coupon for 20% off a family-size pack of ballistic missiles.

'It's a classic Iranian paradox,' said Dr. Laleh Afshar, a political economist at Tehran University. 'The bourse believes in peace, but the people expect a plot twist. It's like watching a rom-com directed by Quentin Tarantino—you're rooting for the happy ending, but you know there’s going to be a lot of blood before the credits roll.'

Editor's note: Kevin, our Iran desk editor, has been tracking this story for three days and has developed a nervous habit of refreshing the Bloomberg terminal while muttering 'please don't be the twist, please don't be the twist.' He has asked us to clarify that he is not, in fact, shorting Iranian rial futures, but that he has started keeping a spare passport in his desk drawer.

Ispirato da: aljazeera.com article on anticipation in Iran as US talks continue amid attacks and war of words

Categoria: Mondo

Questo articolo è satira generata con l'ausilio di intelligenza artificiale e supervisione editoriale umana. Ogni riferimento a fatti reali è puramente parodico.
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